- What effect has the Taiwan Straight Crisis had on Mainland-Taiwan/ Sino-US relations?
Military
USA –
- US is the only country currently selling Arms to Taiwan, pissing off China McClaran
- Working with the PRC to spy on the soviets starting in 1979 McClaran
- Continued to supply arms to Taiwan to offset China’s growing military McClaran
- US sales have only emboldened Taiwan McClaran
Taiwan –
- “is one of the few countries left in today’s world that must deal with a direct, immediate, and growing military threat to its existence” – 623 McClaran
- Weapons list – 624, all antiquated weapons that are no longer used by the American military. McClaran
- Second largest consumer for military arms, first is Saudi Arabia McClaran
- Wants submarines McClaran
- It’s military forces are among the best in the world McClaran
China –
- more reliant on mass numbers than true training or modern equipment McClaran
- buys weapons from Russia to offset American sales to Taiwan McClaran
- Will require Russian logistics and parts for at least another decade McClaran
- Poor accuracy on their weapons, but by 2005 they will have 1000 missiles aimed at Taiwan p.2, Web Memo, John J. Tkacik, Jr. & McClaran
- Sophisticated military technique McClaran
Politics
USA –
- 1979 President Carter ended recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign country to build ties with China Flashpoint
- Taiwan Relations Act (1979) (TRA) – We will supply Taiwan with Defensive weapons only & we didn’t want China to go to war with Taiwan Flashpoint
- Clinton – Three No’s – No to independence, No to Two China’s, No to Taiwan joining any international group that requires sovereignty/statehood for membership Flashpoint
- Arguments have been made on the weapons sold to Taiwan and if they are truly defensive McClaran
- Joint Communiqué (1982) – US will not make larger sales to Taiwan and intends to reduce sales to stopping. – not an international treaty but an executive branch decision – Reagan McClaran
- Nixon and Carter raised Taiwan to an official status McClaran
- Reagan made it clear that he was looking for cross-straight relations to remain good or he would increase arms sales McClaran
- 1989 – Tiananmen Square crisis caused President Bush Sr. to ban arms and technology sales to China, still in effect today McClaran
- Bush jr. sold $18 billion worth of arms to Taiwan Issue Brief
- Lee’s visa to the USA Ross
- Anti-China policies in Congress Ross
Taiwan –
- Ruled by the Kuomintang (KMT) since 1949 Flashpoint
- 2000, democratic election of Chen Shui-bian, who wanted independence, was re-elected in 2004 under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Flashpoint
- Has their own constitution, elected leaders, and an armed military Flashpoint
- Chen stated that if China ever used force against Taiwan then he would declare independence Flashpoint
- 1982 Bargain, 3 Assumptions – 1. US – PRC would pursue re-unification of Taiwan, 2. The US would maintain balance in the straight with arms sales to both sides, 3. The US would stop selling weapons to Taiwan but set up means for them to build defences themselves. McClaran
- Cannot re-unify with the mainland until they become democratic Issue Brief
- Chen’s Three Initiatives – Abolish national guidelines for independence, apply for UN membership, hold a referendum for a revised constitution Issue Brief
- 2005 donated relief supplies to Pakistan earthquake victims was rejected Issue Brief
- Has invested a great deal in China so economically it would hurt Taiwan to separate Flashpoint
- Robust economic growth in comparison to other east Asian countries Issue Brief
China –
- One China policy, ROC lacks acknowledgement of any independence in Taiwan. Flashpoint
- One China, Two Systems policy, Taiwan will be given significant autonomy if they accept reunification Flashpoint
- Anti-Secession Law 2005, China will use force to keep Taiwan a part of China Flashpoint
- Has tried to limit the number of countries selling arms to Taiwan McClaran
- Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence McClaran
- Slowly substituting nationalism for communism, Communism will fail is Taiwan separates McClaran
- Threatening nuclear doctrine McClaran
- Incredibly rapid military modernization, PLA debating the ‘no first use’ policy on nukes p.2, Web Memo, John J. Tkacik, Jr.
History
China and the formation of Taiwan
US views on Taiwan
US and Chinese relations before the Taiwan Straight Crisis
Taiwan Straight Crisis
Lee’s Election in ‘94
Congressional views on Taiwan
China’s/US’s/Taiwan’s response
Political Showmanship
New
Weapons increase
Relations amongst the countries
Military Power & Complications
BBC. News. Taiwan Flashpoint. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/04/taiwan_flashpoint/html/history.stm (accessed January 25, 2007).
Garrett, Banning., Jonathan Adams, Franklin Kramer. 2006. Taiwan in Search of a Strategic Consensus. Issue Brief. May 2006. http://www.acus.org/docs/0603-Taiwan_Search_Strategic_Consensus.pdf ( accessed January 24, 2007).
McClaran, John P. 2000. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan: Implications for the Future of the Sino-U.S. Relationship. Asian Survey. Vol. 40, No. 4: 622-640. http:// links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0004-4687%28200007%2F08%2940%3A4%3C622%3AUASTTI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M (January 4, 2007).
Schbell, Andrew. 2007. Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Straight Crisis. Political Science Quarterly. Vol. 115, No. 2: 227-246. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0032-3195%28200022%28115%3A2%3C227%3ASOFCSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K (Accessed Jan 24, 2007).
Tkacic, John J., Jr. 2006. Panda Hedging: Pentagon Report Urges New Strategy for China. The Heritage Foundation. No. 1093. www.heritage.org/research/AsiaandthePacific/wm1093.cfm (accessed January 4, 2007).
