Here’s the Taiwanese Flag as well

This just helps to show how close Taiwan is to China.

Defence Department, “Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China”, 2000.  http://www.defenselink.mil/news/Jun2000/china06222000.htm (1 February 2007)
I really didn’t use this much, but it does show the drastic views on China in congress, Congress is a little worried about the power China is amassing.

Garrett, Banning., Jonathan Adams, Franklin Kramer. “Taiwan in Search of a Strategic Consensus.” The Atlantic Council of the United States: Issue Brief. March, 2006, http://www.acus.org/docs/0603-Taiwan_Search_Strategic_Consensus.pdf (3 February 2007)

OMG – This is amazing, seriously, AMAZING.  It goes over basically everything, and it really makes a lot of sense. It is seperated by sections (all involving the Taiwan strait crisis) and is a word -Fantastic. And a really interesting read.

Halpern, Nina., Samuel P. S. Ho., “Introduction: Cross-Strait Relations.” Pacific Affaiars. Vol. 72, No. 4. Winter, 2000,  http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0030-851X528199924%2F200024%2972%3A4%3C491%3AICR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1 (21 January 2007)

Basic introduction which helps to make sense of everything else though really doesn’t give any specific information.

Hunter, Duncan., “Hearing on China’s Military Power” House Armed Services Committee., June 22, 2006, http://web.lexis-nexis.com/universe/document?_m=97e8a2bc6b5e6560397211e18aaff9ec&_docnum=2&wchp=dGLbVlb-zSkVA&_md5=3640f8dae7539183e1b508fdecc6ab3d (1 February 2007)

More on Congress and their worries on China, very difficult to read as it’s a report that is their conversation, which at times gets off topic a bit.

McClaran, John P., “U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan: Implications for the Future of the Sino-U.S. Relationship.” Asian Survey. July-August, 2000. http:// links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0004-4687%28200007%2F08%2940%3A4%3C622%3AUASTTI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M (21 January 2007)

Gives a full review of the arms sales and it’s implications as the name implies, very detailed, it helps to understand economics.

Ross, Robert, S., “The 1995-96 Taiwan Strait Confrontation: Coercion, Credibility, and the Use of Force.” International Security. Autumn, 2000, http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0162-2889%28200023%2925%283%3C87%3AT1TSCC%3E2.0.CO52%3B2-G (24 January 2007)

Looked into the likelihood of China declaring war and what methods would be used to prevent it, also looked at the armament and allies for both Taiwan and China

Scobell, Andrew., “Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis” Political Science Quarterly. Summer, 2000. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0032-3195%28200022%29115%3A2%3C227%3ASOFCSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K (22 January 2007)

This looked at how China uses it’s size and what political techniques it uses to stop a war from occurring as well as to get other countries to do what it wants.

 “Taiwan Flashpoint,” BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/04/taiwan_flashpoint/ (25 January 2007)

Basic overview, shows the history of the Crisis as well as demographics for Taiwan

Tkacik, John J. Jr., “Panda Hedging: Pentagon Report Urges New Strategy For China.” The Heritage Foundation.  24 May 2006. www.heritage.org/research/Asianandthepacific/wm1093.cfm (25 January 2007)

A basic argument that Taiwan has already lost any war for independence based on China’s size and military strength as well and the US’s inability to enter into another war at this time.

Here’s the transcript of the Clip:

SAM

You mind my asking how the meeting with the Chinese ambassador went? 

BARTLET

Well, how do you think it went? 

SAM

I think they said if Taiwan tests the Patriots, they’ll start their exercises. 

BARTLET

That’s right, except they didn’t call them Patriots. What did they call them? 

SAM

US-made Patriots. 

BARTLET

Right. 

SAM

They want us to say we’re gonna roll back our sale of arms to Taiwan. 

BARTLET

Good. 

SAM

But we’re not going to stop arming Taiwan. 

BARTLET

No. 

SAM

Especially not now when they’re trying to hold free elections. 

BARTLET

Right. 

SAM

Plus it’s the law. 

BARTLET

Yeah. 

SAM

So we sell them the Orions and we sell them the AMRAAMs... 

BARTLET

[looking at the board] Your move. 

SAM

Hang on... You’ve got two carrier groups headed to the Taiwan Strait... 

BARTLET

Move. 

SAM

Plus, the Carl Vincent in the South China Sea... [moves a figure on the board] 

Beijing wants you to scale back the weapons and you’re not going to do it... 

SAM

You know, sir, I looked something up while you were gone. Eisenhower, it seemed, at all costs wanted to avoid sending ships to resupply Quemoy and Matsu, ‘cause they’d be less then a mile from the Chinese army. A private could... well, everybody was a private in Mao’s army, but a private could fire on a ship and that’d be it. We’d be at war. We’d have to be. 

BARTLET

Yeah. 

SAM

Eisenhower wouldn’t do it. 

BARTLET

No. 

SAM

Why are you? 

BARTLET

Look at the whole board. 

SAM

I am. 

BARTLET

You’re not. 

SAM

I’m trying! 

BARTLET

Sam... 

SAM

Why were the carrier groups in the Taiwan Strait? 

BARTLET

Are they in the Taiwan Strait? 

SAM

They’re on their way. 

BARTLET

Is that the same thing? 

SAM

How does this end? 

Leo knocks and walks into the office. 

LEO

Sir. 

BARTLET

[to Sam] Like this. 

Bartlet walks to Leo to read the note he brought him.

BARTLET

Turn them around. I’ll make some calls and thank people. 

LEO

Yes, sir. 

BARTLET

Thank you, by the way. 

LEO

You, too. [leaves] 

Bartlet returns to Sam and hands him the piece of paper. 

SAM

I’d like to try it without looking at the note. 

BARTLET

[sits down] Okay. 

SAM

China agrees to stand down the war games. 

BARTLET

Right. 

SAM

And they agree to let Taiwan test the Patriots. One Patriot. 

BARTLET

Yes. 

SAM

And we... Please, I want to be right about this. We agree not to sell Taiwan the Aegis Destroyers for a period of... I don’t know... five years. 

BARTLET

Ten years, but you’ve got it. 

SAM

Sir, the Aegis... the Aegis radar technology isn’t something that... I mean, what if Taiwan 

did fall to China? Now they have – plus these ships cost something like $800 million apiece. Buying four of them would eat half of Taiwan’s defense budget. 

BARTLET

And so... 

SAM

You never were going to sell them the destroyers. 

BARTLET

[shakes his head] But everybody wakes up alive in the morning and saves a little face. 

it really isn’t as long as it seems though it is a 2 parter, that’s what the “~~~~” is

I finally figured out my thesis question: When reflecting on the Taiwan Strait Crisis and the events that took place which caused it to end peacefully, Would a declaration of independence by Taiwan today end in war or self-sovereignty?

After all the stuff I’ve looked at the answer is that it would end in War and Taiwan would be horribly beaten because the US wouldn’t be able to come to their aid at the moment and no other country wants to piss off China.

That being said, for my final report I will be showing a clip frm West wing which easily explains all the different facets of the Taiwan Strait Crisis and how everything is interconnected. It helps to explain how one thing affected another.   I will try to find a link to a clip on the web, I’m not sure if there is one. But if you have West Wing Season 3 episode 15 titled “Hartsfield Landing” the portion that I will show is the second to last scene that can be chosen of Sam and Bartlet playing chess and Sam finally realizing how all the pieces work in the Crisis.  And then he explains how it works and you get this, Wow, suddenly all this random stuff makes sense feeling.

Now that we have the dates for when our individual presentations are due, and realizing how close that day is, I am working to get all my information in order and figure stuffs out, Prof. Fernsebner gave me this awesome link (LINK of DOOM, except it’s secretly really cool) and yea, I give links weird titles, that’s how I roll.

I got the 18th as my presentation date, already counted, it’s 26 days from Friday. Just a lil OCD here.

Oh, and one of the things this paper has taught me is that no matter how intelligent you are, or how much of the back story you have, discussions in congress, the transcriptions are impossible to understand. No joke, IMPOSSIBLE. So I think I might have lost a source unless I take everything those people say and take it completely out of context because I cannot figure out to put it into context.

I took home all of my information to read and analyzed and work on for spring break. Then I left all of that in my brother’s car and didn’t get it back untill Sunday. Needless to say, very little work was done. But, I do have all of my information organized in such a way as to be able to work on it without going insane. I feel like I achieved something.

I am still looking into information for the economic ties between the US, Taiwan, and China.  It’s difficult to find hard numbers for any of them seeing as each country likes to spin the information in their favor. And the search for books on my topic is still underway… Yay for relevance. Though I did find a West Wing episode on the Taiwan Straight Crisis and that made me so very happy.  As well as giving me another dimension of the crisis to look into the act of decision but, I think that would be way to much information/personal opinion

- What effect has the Taiwan Straight Crisis had on Mainland-Taiwan/ Sino-US relations?

Military

USA –

- US is the only country currently selling Arms to Taiwan, pissing off China McClaran

- Working with the PRC to spy on the soviets starting in 1979 McClaran

- Continued to supply arms to Taiwan to offset China’s growing military McClaran

- US sales have only emboldened Taiwan McClaran

Taiwan –

- “is one of the few countries left in today’s world that must deal with a direct, immediate, and growing military threat to its existence” – 623 McClaran

- Weapons list – 624, all antiquated weapons that are no longer used by the American military. McClaran

- Second largest consumer for military arms, first is Saudi Arabia McClaran

- Wants submarines McClaran

- It’s military forces are among the best in the world McClaran

China –

- more reliant on mass numbers than true training or modern equipment McClaran

- buys weapons from Russia to offset American sales to Taiwan McClaran

- Will require Russian logistics and parts for at least another decade McClaran

- Poor accuracy on their weapons, but by 2005 they will have 1000 missiles aimed at Taiwan p.2, Web Memo, John J. Tkacik, Jr. & McClaran

- Sophisticated military technique McClaran

Politics

USA –

- 1979 President Carter ended recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign country to build ties with China Flashpoint

- Taiwan Relations Act (1979) (TRA) – We will supply Taiwan with Defensive weapons only & we didn’t want China to go to war with Taiwan Flashpoint

- Clinton – Three No’s – No to independence, No to Two China’s, No to Taiwan joining any international group that requires sovereignty/statehood for membership Flashpoint

- Arguments have been made on the weapons sold to Taiwan and if they are truly defensive McClaran

- Joint Communiqué (1982) – US will not make larger sales to Taiwan and intends to reduce sales to stopping. – not an international treaty but an executive branch decision – Reagan McClaran

- Nixon and Carter raised Taiwan to an official status McClaran

- Reagan made it clear that he was looking for cross-straight relations to remain good or he would increase arms sales McClaran

- 1989 – Tiananmen Square crisis caused President Bush Sr. to ban arms and technology sales to China, still in effect today McClaran

- Bush jr. sold $18 billion worth of arms to Taiwan Issue Brief

- Lee’s visa to the USA Ross

- Anti-China policies in Congress Ross

Taiwan –

- Ruled by the Kuomintang (KMT) since 1949 Flashpoint

- 2000, democratic election of Chen Shui-bian, who wanted independence, was re-elected in 2004 under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Flashpoint

- Has their own constitution, elected leaders, and an armed military Flashpoint

- Chen stated that if China ever used force against Taiwan then he would declare independence Flashpoint

- 1982 Bargain, 3 Assumptions – 1. US – PRC would pursue re-unification of Taiwan, 2. The US would maintain balance in the straight with arms sales to both sides, 3. The US would stop selling weapons to Taiwan but set up means for them to build defences themselves. McClaran

- Cannot re-unify with the mainland until they become democratic Issue Brief

- Chen’s Three Initiatives – Abolish national guidelines for independence, apply for UN membership, hold a referendum for a revised constitution Issue Brief

- 2005 donated relief supplies to Pakistan earthquake victims was rejected Issue Brief

- Has invested a great deal in China so economically it would hurt Taiwan to separate Flashpoint

- Robust economic growth in comparison to other east Asian countries Issue Brief

China –

- One China policy, ROC lacks acknowledgement of any independence in Taiwan. Flashpoint

- One China, Two Systems policy, Taiwan will be given significant autonomy if they accept reunification Flashpoint

- Anti-Secession Law 2005, China will use force to keep Taiwan a part of China Flashpoint

- Has tried to limit the number of countries selling arms to Taiwan McClaran

- Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence McClaran

- Slowly substituting nationalism for communism, Communism will fail is Taiwan separates McClaran

- Threatening nuclear doctrine McClaran

- Incredibly rapid military modernization, PLA debating the ‘no first use’ policy on nukes p.2, Web Memo, John J. Tkacik, Jr.

History

China and the formation of Taiwan

US views on Taiwan

US and Chinese relations before the Taiwan Straight Crisis

Taiwan Straight Crisis

Lee’s Election in ‘94

Congressional views on Taiwan

China’s/US’s/Taiwan’s response

Political Showmanship

New

Weapons increase

Relations amongst the countries

Military Power & Complications

BBC. News. Taiwan Flashpoint. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/asia_pac/04/taiwan_flashpoint/html/history.stm (accessed January 25, 2007).

Garrett, Banning., Jonathan Adams, Franklin Kramer. 2006. Taiwan in Search of a Strategic Consensus. Issue Brief. May 2006. http://www.acus.org/docs/0603-Taiwan_Search_Strategic_Consensus.pdf ( accessed January 24, 2007).

McClaran, John P. 2000. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan: Implications for the Future of the Sino-U.S. Relationship. Asian Survey. Vol. 40, No. 4: 622-640. http:// links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0004-4687%28200007%2F08%2940%3A4%3C622%3AUASTTI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M (January 4, 2007).

Schbell, Andrew. 2007. Show of Force: Chinese Soldiers, Statesmen, and the 1995-1996 Taiwan Straight Crisis. Political Science Quarterly. Vol. 115, No. 2: 227-246. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0032-3195%28200022%28115%3A2%3C227%3ASOFCSS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-K (Accessed Jan 24, 2007).

Tkacic, John J., Jr.  2006. Panda Hedging: Pentagon Report Urges New Strategy for China. The Heritage Foundation. No. 1093. www.heritage.org/research/AsiaandthePacific/wm1093.cfm (accessed January 4, 2007).

http://www.indiana.edu/~easc/exhibit/2jpg.html

I like it, but it might be too late. The other picture, here is one that I think can have a lot to examine.

When viewing the relationships between China, Taiwan, and the United States, the Taiwan straight becomes a charged argument. China’s argument is that Taiwan is a rebellious territory and argues the “one China” policy, stating that Taiwan will remain a part of the united China, threatening that military force will be used if necessary. Taiwan feels that they are prepared for sovereign rule, though they are oppressed by China’s overbearing politics and a lack of military alliances who would sell Taiwan arms. The United States used to be one of the many countries selling arms to Taiwan, but over time those countries submitted to Chinese pressures to cease their sales, leaving the United States in the middle of this situation.

Since 1995 the crisis between this these three countries have grown in considerable proportions. Mid 1995, President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan (whose very election to power annoyed Chinese rulers who saw this as an act of rebellion and a Taiwanese step towards sovereignty) received a Visa to visit the United States. This and the rising arms sales between the United States and Taiwan, which contradicted the 1982 Joint Communiqué between the United States and China which stated that the United States would decrease their arms sales to Taiwan, though no date was set on when the arms sales would be required to cease. For a period of two years between 1995 and 1996 the Taiwan Straight Crisis emerged. And since that time China has continued to grow exponentially in military power, becoming a strong threat to Taiwan’s independence and a powerful force in Asian politic. While Taiwan is currently debating the need for independence publicly, they are developing a military force which, though it is currently lacking in premiere military equipment, has a large army (with respect to Taiwan’s population) and a democratically elected ruler. Since the 2000 and then 2004 re-election of Chen Shui-bian president, and in response to the election of a president who has backed independence, China has passed a law stating that they will ensure their control of Taiwan by any means necessary.